Data and resolution requirements in mapping vegetation in spatially heterogeneous landscapes

Peer reviewe

Fluctuating Rainfall, Persistent Food Crisis—Use of Rainfall Data in the Kenyan Drought Early Warning System

Peer reviewe

Usability of one-class classification in mapping and detecting changes in bare peat surfaces in the tundra

Arctic areas have experienced greening and changes in permafrost caused by climate change during recent decades. However, there has been a lack of automated methods in mapping changes in fine-scale patterns of permafrost landscapes. We mapped areal coverage of bare peat areas and changes in them in a peat plateau located in north-western Russia between 2007 and 2015. We utilized QuickBird and WorldView-3 satellite image data in an object-based setting. We compared four different one-class classifiers (one-class support vector machine, binary support vector machine, random forest, rotation forest) both in a fully supervised binary setting and with positive and unlabelled training data. There was notable variation in classification performance. The bare peat area F-score varied between 0.77 and 0.96 when evaluated by cross-validated training data and between 0.22 and 0.57 when evaluated by independent test data. Overall, random forest performed the most robustly but all classifiers performed well in some classifications. During the 8 year period, there was a 21%-26% decrease in the bare peat areal coverage. We conclude that (1) tested classifiers can be used in one-class settings and (2) there is a need to develop methods for tracking changes in single land cover types.Peer reviewe

The influence of socioeconomic factors on storm preparedness and experienced impacts in Finland

Extreme weather events, such as storms, may cause material damage, injuries, and interfere with day-to-day operation of societies. Earlier research on natural hazards and climate change adaptation has found that demographic and socioeconomic factors influence the way individuals prepare for and are affected by natural hazards. However, research often focuses on areas with high exposure and vulnerability and research on low exposure and vulnerability areas is scarcer. To address this gap, we ask: do socioeconomic and demographic factors matter in how individuals prepare for and are affected by storms in Finland? Our data consist of an internet survey (n = 1014) conducted after a severe winter storm hit Finland in the beginning of 2019, and we analyze the data with Chi-squared tests and logistic regressions. Our results show that respondents? education level or employment status are not connected to whether they took preparedness measures or whether they experienced harm. Instead, the type of residential property does play a part. In addition, respondents who had experienced storm-related harm during recent years are more likely to prepare than those who have not. In conclusion, socio-demographic factors seem to have only marginal influence on storm preparedness or experienced impacts in Finland, which contradicts earlier research. This may stem from the relatively equal distribution of well-being among the population.Peer reviewe

Conceptualizing community in disaster risk management

Community resilience is often assessed in disaster risk management (DRM) research and it has been argued that it should be strengthened for more robust DRM. However, the term community is seldom precisely defined and it can be understood in many ways. We argue that it is crucial to explore the concept of community within the context of DRM in more detail. We identify three dominating views of conceptualizing community (place-based community, interaction-based community, community of practice and interest), and discuss the relevance of these conceptualizations. We base this discussion on quantitative and qualitative empirical and policy document data regarding flood and storm risk management in Finland, wildfire risk management in Norway and volcanic risk management Iceland. According to our results, all three conceptualizations of community are visible but in differing situations. Our results emphasize the strong role of public sector in DRM in the studied countries. In disaster preparedness and response, a professionalized community of practice and interest appear to be the most prominent within all three countries. The interaction-based community of informal social networks is of less relevance, although its role is more visible in disaster response and recovery. The place-based (local) community is visible in some of the policy documents, but otherwise its role is rather limited. Finally, we argue that the measured resilience of a community depends on how the community is conceptualized and operationalized, and that the measures to strengthen resilience of a particular community should be different depending on what the focal community is.Peer reviewe

Inventory and Connectivity Assessment of Wetlands in Northern Landscapes with a Depression-Based DEM Method

Peer reviewe

Zoning and weighting in urban heat island vulnerability and risk mapping in Helsinki, Finland

Climate change is likely to increase the risks related to heat waves in urban areas. We map spatial pattern of heat wave vulnerability and risk in the Helsinki metropolitan area in southern Finland. First, we assess differences that zoning, i.e., differences in spatial units of analysis, and weighting, i.e., weights given to indicators when constructing the index, cause in map production. Second, we evaluate how maps of consensus and certainty could pave the way for visualizing and assessing uncertainties in risk and vulnerability indices. For vulnerability, we use socioeconomic data using 5 different zoning options and 11 different weighting options. For risk, we add two extra layers to vulnerability maps: hazard map showing the spatial pattern of heat based on Landsat satellite images and exposure map showing the spatial pattern of population. We found that when different zoning options are used, the spatial pattern of vulnerability may differ dramatically. In risk maps, the differences between zoning options are smaller. Contrary to previous literature, differences in indicator weighting alter the final maps slightly. The consensus and certainty maps show their potential, e.g., in pointing out areas which may have both high risk/vulnerability and high certainty for risk/vulnerability. Finally, we discuss other possibilities in tackling the uncertainties in mapping and propose new avenues for research.Peer reviewe

Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk

The assessments of future climate risks are common; however, usually, they focus on climate projections without considering social changes. We project heat risks for Finland to evaluate (1) what kind of differences there are in heat vulnerability projections with different scenarios and scales, and (2) how the use of socio-economic scenarios influences heat risk assessments. We project a vulnerability index with seven indicators downscaled to the postal code area scale for 2050. Three different scenario sets for vulnerability are tested: one with five global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios; the second with three European SSPs (EUSSPs) with data at the sub-national scale (NUTS2); and the last with the EUSSPs but aggregated data at the national scale. We construct projections of heat risk utilizing climatic heat hazard data for three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and vulnerability and exposure data for five global SSPs up to 2100. In the vulnerability projections, each scenario in each dataset shows a decrease in vulnerability compared to current values, and the differences between the three scenario sets are small. There are evident differences both in the spatial patterns and in the temporal trends when comparing the risk projections with constant vulnerability to the projections with dynamic vulnerability. Heat hazard increases notably in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but a decrease of vulnerability especially in SSP1 and SSP5 alleviates risks. We show that projections of vulnerability have a considerable impact on future heat-related risk and emphasize that future risk assessments should include the combination of long-term climatic and socio-economic projections.Peer reviewe

Role of Transformative Capacity in River Basin Management Transformations

To tackle problems related to water quantity and quality, transformations in water management systems have become of increasing interest. Transformative capacity can be defined as the ability first to adapt to changes, and if needed, to carry out fundamental changes in a specific system. Using a framework of ten components of transformative capacity and an analysis of earlier historical research, policy documents and data gathered in a stakeholder scenario workshop, we examine the relationship between past and future transformations and transformative capacity in river basin management in the River Vantaa basin, located in southern Finland. In the past, River Vantaa was heavily polluted by municipal wastewater. The water quality has gradually improved but is still not considered good. The most successful changes have been concentrated on point source pollution, such as municipal wastewater, and they have mostly been driven by public administration and municipal coordination. In the future, more effort should be put on diffuse pollution, especially agricultural loading, and this requires changes in societal values and new forms of governance. We show how the past transformations have partly been driven by transformative capacity, but some transformations have enabled changes in the components of transformative capacity, indicating the interconnectedness of the different components. Furthermore, the interplay between transformations and transformative capacity occurs across spatial and temporal scales. We discuss how transformations take time, how transformative capacity evolves over longer time-spans, and how capacity and trajectories in local and wider scales are in a continuous interaction.Peer reviewe

Configurations of community in flood risk management

Despite a notable increase in the literature on community resilience, the notion of 'community' remains underproblematised. This is evident within flood risk management (FRM) literature, in which the understanding and roles of communities may be acknowledged but seldom discussed in any detail. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate how community networks are configured by different actors, whose roles and responsibilities span spatial scales within the context of FRM. Accordingly, the authors analyse findings from semi-structured interviews, policy documents, and household surveys from two flood prone areas in Finnish Lapland. The analysis reveals that the ways in which authorities, civil society, and informal actors take on multiple roles are intertwined and form different types of networks. By implication, the configuration of community is fuzzy, elusive and situated, and not confined to a fixed spatiality. The authors discuss the implications of the complex nature of community for FRM specifically, and for community resilience more broadly. They conclude that an analysis of different actors across scales contributes to an understanding of the configuration of community, including community resilience, and how the meaning of community takes shape according to the differing aims of FRM in combination with differing geographical settings.Peer reviewe